The UK HSA data for weeks 46[1] and 47[2] continue to show both the strength of vaccines in limiting hospitalisations and deaths (even though breakthrough cases are increasingly prevalent) and their weakness in failing to prevent case growth. Confirming what I[3] and others have written about before, this data shows both the problems of the prevailing narratives around vaccination and why greater targeting of vaccines should be focused on, rather than the current strategy of vaccinating anyone and everyone.

In particular, the rates per 100,000 surrounding caseloads, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the vaccinated and unvaccinated show this isn’t a pandemic of the unvaccinated at this point, with vaccinated people in older age cohorts making up to between 1/4 to 1/5 the rates of hospitalisations. Considering the levels of vaccination amongst these cohorts, this is confirmation both of the endemicity of the virus and of the limits of vaccines themselves. The raw numbers show the extent of breakthrough cases for hospitalisations and deaths to be significant enough that even with 100% vaccination hospital capacity would still be strained.

Here is the data on week 47 for per 100,000 rates:

Thus the idea of reaching high enough vaccination levels so as to return to normal in the sense of a pre-COVID world is a complete myth, propagated more to encourage vaccination. Another issue that confirms this is the seroprevalence of antibodies within the UK’s population, with limited N-prevalence amongst the older age cohorts despite having maintained consistent case rates across the UK since mid-summer. As the HSA surveillance report suggests, “recent observations from UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) surveillance data that N antibody levels appear to be lower in individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination”. This suggests a potential vector for vaccine escape that will affect the most vulnerable demographics (who are potentially immunocompromised).

Here is seroprevalence data from week 47:

This then emphasises the need to move toward a more targeted vaccination regime, where older age cohorts and vulnerable demographics can receive regular boosters while younger cohorts can transmit and spread the virus, producing endemicity. Now that younger cohorts have significant vaccine take up anyway, and the difference in hospitalisation and particularly mortality rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated in these cohorts is limited, this would be an effective strategy for moving toward endemicity.

But of course what is effective isn’t what is happening. Instead, we’re seeing the madness of vaccinating children who have negligible hospitalisation and death rates with vaccines which potentially increase their risk of cardiovascular problems. We’re also seeing a replay of the lockdown-style narratives across Western countries, gearing up interventions which are increasingly limited in their capacity to prevent the spread of COVID. The focus on caseloads shows the stupidity of government action, as cases are now consistently higher in nearly all age cohorts amongst the vaccinated. Caseloads are again becoming the basis of action, even though hospitalisations and deaths are levelling out. At the same time, medical authorities are backtracking and saying the vaccine was never about preventing transmission, but about preventing serious illness. These authorities cannot decide which narrative they should take, and instead pick both. Thus we are both on the cusp of ending the pandemic and in the midst of another wave.

The idea of vaccines being the way back toward freedom was a lie. We now have governments speaking out of both sides of their mouths. On the one hand, they are saying we can reopen. On the other, they are saying cases are too high and we need to lockdown. Even in England, where there are no substantive restrictions, the spectre of another lockdown continues to haunt the public imagination as we are consistently warned to be careful and if cases are too high we will go to Plan B. The pandemic condition will roll on. This isn’t a matter of being anti-vax, but a recognition that the freedom taken during the pandemic will not be given back by those who took it. There will always another excuse, another issue or another emergency.

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[1]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1034383/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-46.pdf

[2]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036047/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_47.pdf

[3] https://thelibertarianideal.com/2021/10/27/vaccine-black-holes/